The plight of vacant big-box stores will come to Brandon about 15 to 20 years after they start hitting the rest of the world. So, in about 15 or 20 years. Tragically, we will be caught completely unawares.

My home town of Brandon is still fixated on what to do to “revive” its ailing downtown, where a mall has been transformed into a sleepy “professional centre.” And, in the one-time suburbs, the “real mall” is rapidly shedding foot traffic. Where’s everyone gone?

To the shiny new “Corral Centre” big-box mall, where pedestrians are treated as an afterthought that was never really thought of at all, and even cars aren’t shunted through the parking lot very efficiently. If there was a Razzies for urban design, well, it might be the only urban design award Brandon would even be up for.

Anyway, a couple of years ago, after the Corral Centre began to take shape, there was a lot of congratulatory back-slapping among Brandon VIPs (Very Inflated Personalities) who spoke of the “retail power centre” as if it were an economic renaissance that meant Brandon had finally come of age.

But I knew, even then, that Brandon only jumps on board a bandwagon when it’s about 90% out of steam. And the big box culture? Call it over:

The format has reached the saturation point, industry experts say. In home improvement renovation alone, there are now nearly 280 superstores, or one for every 26,000 families, according to the latest quarterly report by the online industry trade publication, Hardlines.

Small is back in style.

Partly due to changing demographics and the current economic downturn, but mostly because the market is saturated, many big box retailers are downsizing to smaller formats or opening fewer stores of any size.

There have even been a few store closings, including the announcement last week that six Sam’s Clubs operated by Wal-Mart would close at the end of this month. Last year, Rona closed two of its larger stores because they overlapped nearby stores acquired from a competitor. Last Christmas, Linens ‘n Things went out of business.

Some are encountering political resistance.

“Political resistance” in Brandon is laughable, where the city bent over backwards to encourage the Corral Centre, even at its own expense (see: ongoing reconstruction of 18th Street and its associated bridges).

Unfortunately, the cost is just beginning. Inevitably, when the stores that now fill the Corral Centre decide that those buildings no longer meet their needs, and when their lease is up, they’re gone-gone-gone. And if there’s anything worse for a city than a big-box mall, it’s a vacant big-box mall, which is just about unusable for any other purpose.

You can turn old warehouses into cool condos. You can put a clothing store into a former tobaccanist. But a vacant power centre just sits there. The buildings are too big, and too crappy for any other purpose except low-margin, high-volume retail.

If there’s any doubt, and you’re in Westman, just go check out the former Zellers at 34th and Victoria. Note how it has been turned into a thriving new — wait, what? An ultra-low-end discounter inhabits just a small part of the space?

Now think of that — times 20. That’s the Corral Centre, circa 2025. Tumbleweeds, baby. Tumbleweeds.