EVERYBODY PANIC!

 Posted by on 27 April 2009  Modern Life
Apr 272009
 

OMIGOD!  Everyone panic!  There’s a new disease that will undoubtedly sweep the globe and kill us all!

Puh-leeze.  It never fails to astonish me how readily the global community will panic.

In case you don’t listen to the radio, watch TV, read blogs or pick up a newspaper, there is a new strain of the flu that apparently has originated in Mexico and is now making its way around the world.  According to the Washington Post:

The United States declared a “public health emergency” yesterday as countries from New Zealand to Scotland investigated suspected cases of illness that they feared might be a strain of swine flu that has been identified in Mexico, the United States and Canada.

Yes, a public health emergency.  It certainly sounds dangerous.  And, to be fair, it is responsible for a number of deaths in Mexico.  According to most mass media sources, so far the only deaths due to this strain of swine flu have been in Mexico and may number over one hundred.  The important word there is “may.”

Fewer details are available about the outbreak in Mexico. Health officials there have said they are investigating more than 1,600 cases of suspicious, severe flulike infections, with 103 people reportedly dead. Just 22 cases of swine flu have been confirmed there, however.

See there?  Only 22 cases have been confirmed.

Yes, it’s sad.  Of course it is.  But one of the undeniable truths about life is that it is finite.  Everyone dies.  But is this particular, specific case of death worth freaking out about?  I don’t think so.  How many people die everyday in Mexico?

According to the CIA factbook, the death rate in Mexico is 4.78 per 1,000 people.  The estimated 2009 population of the country is 111,211,789.  By my math that means that every single day there are about 1,456 deaths.  If 22 of them are a result of this virus, that is a total of 6.9% of the deaths.

That math makes it look impressive.  However, that assumes that ALL of the confirmed deaths occured on a single day.  I’m not convinced.

Yet, panic grows.

Masses were canceled and a high-profile soccer game was played before an empty stadium as officials urged the public to take precautions.

Does no one remember SARS?  The Avian flu?  Both of those diseases were touted as the End of Days.

What everyone needs to remember, and very few do, is that the deaths that result from these diseases tend to be those most at risk of infection – the sick, the elderly and the very young.  Simple, basic hygenic precautions offer great amounts of protection. 

I mean, what kind of world do we live in when the WHO (World Health Organization) has to remind people to wash their hands?

Were I a more suspicious man, I would suggest that someone trying to divert our attention away from the ecomony for a little while.  And, if I were such a man, I would say that by the look of the headlines around the world, that someone is doing a very fine job.

T. Keith Edmunds

  • http://pennywise-books.blogspot.com/ T. Keith Edmunds

    Updated to note that due to six confirmed mild cases of swine flu in Canada, at least two countries have issued travel warnings about traveling here: http://www.cbc.ca/consumer/story/2009/04/26/airlines-customers.html

    Let the hysteria continue!

  • Robson

    “But is this particular, specific case of death worth freaking out about?”

    Not yet. But it’s certainly worth taking precautions like cancelling public gatherings in Mexico (the “epicentre” of this outbreak) and activating public health protocols worldwide. This outbreak is not the “End of Days” but it certainly has the potential to turn really bad, really quick.

    SARS was quickly contained. Avian Flu never went human-to-human. This one is poorly contained and transmissable between people. Combine that with the fact that it’s a totally new virus of which little is known and for which there is no vaccine, and you’ve got a pretty scary scenario from an epidemiological point of view.

    And “22 confirmed cases” in Mexico implies many, many more actual cases. The steps necessary to “confirm” this virus are quite labour-intensive. (Some of the original samples had to be sent to Winnipeg, ffs.) And it’s not just the “the sick, the elderly and the very young” who are dying. Many of the 100+ dead in Mexico have been young, otherwise healthy adults. That’s one of the baffling things, seeing as the impact of the virus seems to be so far less severe in the U.S. That could just be a quirk or it could mean the virus is mutating fast, which creates a whole new set of problems…

    Sure, the echo chamber of the 24-hour news cycle makes all this sound scarier than it actually is, but there is a real element of potential danger here. Better to over-react than under-react, at least from a public health perspective.

  • http://www.absurdintellectual.com/ Grant Hamilton

    @ T.Keith — I love the tag “cool your jets” … so going to be using that one.

    @ Robson — I agree with the “better to over-react than under-react” philosophy in general, particularly with diseases like the flu, but how much can you do this before you end up with a Boy Who Cried Wolf phenomenon. Having read about the 1918 epidemic, I know that flu is often underestimated by the general public already. But going to gung-ho about this possible pandemic too early risks making that even worse.

    It’s interesting to note that cases so far in Canada and the northern U.S. are extremely mild. I don’t know why, obviously, but it suggests an environmental limitation to this strain of flu.

  • http://www.absurdintellectual.com/ Grant Hamilton

    PS. Captain Trips!

  • http://www.absurdintellectual.com/ Amy Breen

    I agree with over-reacting rather than under-reacting.

    But Grant, seriously, when you say Captain Tripps, it kind of freaks me out a little. :P

  • http://pennywise-books.blogspot.com/ T. Keith Edmunds

    But how many times can we over-react to potential crises before we STOP reacting to them? Then where will we be when a real pandemic comes along?

    Wake me when Captain Tripps is truly spreading across the land. I’ll panic when it’s warranted.

    • http://www.absurdintellectual.com/ Grant Hamilton

      ahhh, and by that time it will be too late.

  • http://pennywise-books.blogspot.com/ T. Keith Edmunds

    Meh. What good does panic do? It uses valuable resources only. If panic is warranted, then you are correct in saying it is too late, so there’s no reason in conserving those resources.

    Which brings me back to “meh.”

    Inform me. Don’t try to frighten me.

  • Robson

    Uh-oh… The infection rates are disturbing and all, but if this isn’t a sign of the apocalypse I don’t know what is:

    “A statement issued by the WHO Saturday did not preclude the possibility that the pandemic threat level would rise in coming days and a spokesperson for the agency, posting on the social networking site Twitter, said the emergency committee of experts that advises on these decisions is to reconvene on Tuesday.”

    The UN health agency is issuing statements through Twitter?!? Just tell Randall Flagg we surrender already.

  • Scott C Arnold

    It’s amazing how easily people will panic. To date, there are very few cases and, as far as I can find, no evidence that the swine flu is any worse than the average every day flu. How wide-spread is the average every day flu? According to flufacts.com:

    “In the U.S., an estimated 25–50 million cases of the flu are currently reported each year — leading to 150,000 hospitalizations and 30,000–40,000 deaths yearly. If these figures were to be estimated incorporating the rest of the world, there would be an average of approximately 1 billion cases of flu, around 3–5 million cases of severe illness, and 300,000–500,000 deaths annually.”

    Oh no! Swine flu has raised the instances of flu from 25,000,000 to 25,000,020. Everyone run for the hills! The world is ending!