Prediction time: Little gold men

Yes, it’s that time of year — the Academy Awards, when really beautiful and well-paid people come together to honour themselves and each other, and to exhort us to keep going to the movies, because didn’t you see? There’s an animated foreign short film who also won an award (it was during the ads) and by not going to see the latest blockbuster, you’re somehow hurting that foreign animated film’s set dresser. Or something.

I just think it’s time for this blog to go out on a limb. To make some predictions. To show of the cojones. Wanna go Oscar to Oscar? Print out an Oscar Prediction Scorecard (pdf) (pilfered from Vanity Fair) and follow along at home.

My picks after the jump:

Best Actor

• Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
• Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
• Sean Penn, Milk
• Brad Pitt, Benjamin Button
• Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

Mickey Rourke, in a walk, for this one. Everyone’s calling it, and the Academy is as susceptible to herd mentality as anyone. Any of the others would be a shocker. Plus, I hear that he’s actually pretty damn amazing.

Best Supporting Actor

• Josh Brolin, Milk
• Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
• Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
• Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
• Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road

Does anyone think that Heath Ledger won’t get this? No-brainer.

Best Actress

• Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
• Angelina Jolie, Changeling
• Melissa Leo, Frozen River
• Meryl Streep, Doubt
• Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road

There’s all kinds of chatter about Meryl Streep on this one, but I think this will be one of the upsets. The Academy loves Nazis and I think Kate Winslet will get this one. Angelina’s not a long-shot, either — her hubby’s getting mighty unlucky with Benjamin Button, and she might benefit from some sympathy votes. But mark me down for Winslet here.

Best Supporting Actress

• Amy Adams, Doubt
• Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
• Viola Davis, Doubt
• Taraji P. Henson, Benjamin Button
• Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler

Amy Adams gets. I can’t resist an Amy, why should the Academy?

Best Picture

• Curious Case of Benjamin Button
• Frost/Nixon
• Milk
• The Reader
• Slumdog Millionaire

In hindsight, a decade from now, historians will look back at the movies of last year and say that Frost/Nixon was the best. But the prize will go this year to Slumdog Millionaire. It’s got the mo’

Best Director

• David Fincher, Benjamin Button
• Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
• Gus Van Sant, Milk
• Stephen Daldry, The Reader
• Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire

Hmmm, a toughie. But I’m going to predict Ron Howard ekes out a win here, for Front/Nixon.

Best Foreign Film

• Baader Meinhof Complex
• The Class
• Departures
• Revanche
• Waltz with Bashir

I have no clue, but the title of Waltz with Bashir intrigues me. Let’s go with that.

Best Animated Film

• Bolt
• Kung Fu Panda
• WALL-E

WALL-E in a walk. No debate. The others pander ponderously where WALL-E floats through its message with delicacy and grace. Pixar’s touch is golden.

Achievement in Art Direction

• Changeling
• Curious Case of Benjamin Button
• The Dark Knight
• The Duchess
• Revolutionary Road

Presumably there are Academy members who really consider their choices in each and every category, making special point to carefully watch each nominated film, keeping track of the art direction, say. These are probably art directors. Unfortunately, they are wildly outnumbered by the Academy members who, like me, simply check off a movie that they think looked good, probably based on YouTube trailers. Benjamin Button, come on down!

Achievement in Cinematography

• Changeling
• Curious Case of Benjamin Button
• The Dark Knight
• The Reader
• Slumdog Millionaire

This one goes to The Dark Night, just so their Heath Ledger award doesn’t look like a complete charity nod.

Achievement in Costume Design

• Australia
• Curious Case of Benjamin Button
• The Duchess
• Milk
• Revolutionary Road

I think Australia’s going to get this one, but I’m mostly playing a hunch.

Best Documentary

• The Betrayal
• Encounters at the End of the World
• The Garden
• Man on Wire
• Trouble the Water

Man on Wire is the only one I’ve seen, but it’s stunningly good. An easy pick.

Best Documentary Short

• The Conscience of Nhem En
• The Final Inch
• Smile Pinki
• The Witness

Um, if I had a four-sided coin, I’d flip it here. Let’s go with The Conscience of Nhem En.

Achievement in Film Editing

• Curious Case of Benjamin Button
• The Dark Knight
• Frost/Nixon
• Milk
• Slumdog Millionaire

No one in Hollywood wants to look anti-gay — particularly in the wake of Prop. 8. So I think Milk needs at least one win so everyone can feel good about themselves. Milk grabs the statuette.

Achievement in Makeup

• Curious Case of Benjamin Button
• The Dark Knight
• Hellboy II: The Golden Army

Heath Ledger will get the Best Supporting Actor award because his performance transcended the makeup, so it won’t be The Dark Night. Hellboy II has Guillermo del Toro behind it, but with 13 nominations, you can’t count out the Curious Case of Benjamin Button. I think Brad Pitt’s aging in reverse thing will win out over the fantastical world of the Golden Army.

Best Original Score

• Curious Case of Benjamin Button
• Defiance
• Milk
• Slumdog Millionaire
• WALL-E

Yeesh! I have no clue. From the hat, blindfolded, comes my pick … Slumdog Millionaire? Sure. Plus, they’ve got two individual songs nominated.

Best Original Song

• Down to Earth, WALL-E
• Jai Ho, Slumdog Millionaire
• O Saya, Slumdog Millionaire

A classic split, with WALL-E coming up the middle between the two Slumdog Millionaire tunes. Plus WALL-E gets all the Slumdog hater votes and the backlash votes.

Best Animated Short

• La Maison en Petits Cubes
• Lavatory – Lovestory
• Oktapodi
• Presto
• This Way Up

Again, I have no inside information, nor do I know any of these nominated films at all. But I can’t resist the possibilities inherent in Lavatory-Lovestory. Neither will the Academy.

Best Live Action Short

• Auf der Strecke (On the Line)
• Manon on the Asphalt
• New Boy
• The Pig
• Spielzeugland (Toyland)

It is going to be awesome to see some poor actor or actress mangling the word Spielzeugland. Luckily, they’ll have a second opportunity to get it right, when they open the envelope.

Achievement in Sound Editing

• The Dark Knight
• Iron Man
• Slumdog Millionaire
• WALL-E
• Wanted

Iron Man’s nominated? Wanted? Sound editing seems to be where all the high-octane action films get recognized for their ability to deliver bone-shaking thrills through the judicious use of volume. I think in terms of Angelina vehicles, she has her best chances with Changeling in other categories. Iron Man get it, in this case. RDJ FTW.

Achievement in Sound Mixing

• Curious Case of Benjamin Button
• The Dark Knight
• Slumdog Millionaire
• WALL-E
• Wanted

Is there really that much of a substantive difference between Sound Editing and Sound Mixing? To the Academy, there is! The Dark Night will pick up a lesser Oscar here, again to make it look less like Heath Ledger’s win was out of charity.

Best Visual Effects

• Curious Case of Benjamin Button
• The Dark Knight
• Iron Man

Thirteen nominations isn’t all for naught — Benjamin Button will take this award home. Remember, it doesn’t just span a man’s life, but also most of the time periods he lives through, and the film’s look does a good job at capturing the feel of different eras.

Best Adapted Screenplay

• Curious Case of Benjamin Button
• Doubt
• Frost/Nixon
• The Reader
• Slumdog Millionaire

In a case of name recognition versus name recognition, this category will come down to Benjamin Button versus Frost/Nixon. I’m torn on this one — I’d like to see the F. Scott Fitzgerald short story get recognized, but the retro feel of Frost/Nixon might make it a winner. Frost/Nixon, by a jowl.

Best Original Screenplay

• Frozen
• Happy-Go-Lucky
• In Bruges
• Milk
• WALL-E

Will WALL-E’s audacious silent first half be rewarded? I think it will, in what will be a bit of a breakthrough for an animated film.

Come back Monday to see how I did — or taunt me in the comments.